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If the current year had already been poised as the most challenging period in modern history for the international system established after WWII, the past week proved to be its most destructive week yet. The Israeli government deepened its disregard for international conventions by sending a squadron of warplanes to Qatar, striking representatives from Hamas engaged in ceasefire talks in Doha. The last meaningful forum aimed at dialogue appears to have vanished completely.

At least 19 Russian drones violated the territorial skies of Poland. In an unprecedented move, Nato airpower was engaged to counter hostile objects within the borders of a member nation. Regardless of if the incursion resulted from an error or intentional testing by Moscow, as western experts believe, it represented “the closest we have been to outright war after WWII,” the Polish leader, Donald Tusk, stated.

And then, a prominent conservative voice, a firebrand conservative activist and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead during a speech to college students and Maga supporters at a Utah university. Without evidence of the shooter’s identity or intentions, Trump immediately blamed “those on the radical left,” accusing them of rhetoric that led directly for the terrorism that we’re seeing across the nation today.”

Asked how a polarized country could heal after Kirk’s assassination, he responded he was indifferent”. His explanation for that was chilling: Right-wing extremists are radical because they oppose criminal activity … The radicals on the left pose the real threat – being vicious and horrible and politically savvy.” In this manner political division hardens into group mentality. This is how the spiral of hatred accelerates toward irreversible conflict.

Actually, over 75% of all extremist-related killings across America over the last 10 years have come from individuals on the far right, with the radical left accountable for just a small number of these incidents. Trump condemned political violence in general a day later – but did not acknowledge a series of recent assaults targeting liberal figures, including several killings. From his perspective, the issue remains perpetually others, never the “wonderful Americans” who make up his core followers.

The political and cultural aftershocks from the assassination are certain to emerge in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger in a polarised climate is that this event becomes the historical parallel of our age. That arson attack which occurred in early 1933 signaled Germany’s shift away from democracy toward autocratic rule. The Nazi leader, newly appointed as head of state, capitalized on the incident to eliminate basic rights of the Weimar constitution – expression, press, organizational liberty, public gathering.

“Anyone who stands in our way shall be eliminated,” he said, inspecting the arsoned building. Thousands of communists were jailed, even elected representatives within the legislature. Once opposition was suppressed, the ruling party quickly cemented control.

In today’s US, the tragic killing has gripped the country, energizing political bases and Trump’s supporters, and he knows it. The white supremacist, a controversial commentator, demanded the arrest of all opposing lawmakers, openly claiming the murder as the movement’s turning point.

The reality is, this incident serves as that could rescue an increasingly unpopular presidency scarred by a sharp drop in employment figures, a weakening dollar, and real estate turmoil. Trump mourned Kirk as though he were family, yet his language implied it might become as much about targeting opponents as justice. Immediately following the assassination, Trump promised to go after all individuals of those who contributed in this tragedy … even groups that fund and support it.” He singled out George Soros, the American-Hungarian philanthropist and political contributor. He is dangerous,” he informed a news outlet, he “should be put in jail.”

The reasons for the assassination are still unknown. The political views of the suspect, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, appear as muddled similar to another recent perpetrator, the 20 year old who attempted to assassinate the former president at a rally. Does this represent left-wing extremism attacking the radical right – or is it an obscure online culture of online niches entering the real world? Phrases engraved upon ammunition shells in Utah appear unlike an ideological manifesto than a crude bricolage of puerile memes and gaming references.

But it is hard not to fear that suppression of dissenting scholars, legal professionals, journalists, government employees, armed forces members, and judicial figures in the US may increase. Already, online responses have led to a wave of sackings and US state department officials have warned foreign nationals against endorsing or make light of the murder, directing embassies to take “appropriate action” against any foreigners who do.

Trump has long thrived on chaos and disorder. When genuine emergencies are absent, he invents scenarios – including imagined crime pandemics in Los Angeles, Washington DC and urban centers. Manufactured unrest advances his ambitions. Currently, he possesses an ideal opportunity. It is understandable he couldn’t care less if the nation comes together.

The shooting provides the perfect pretext to strengthen control, silencing dissent, and concentrating power – so that his successors may inherit full state control, irrespective of personal appeal, qualifications or mandate. Ultimately, any autocratic system must be established initially; once entrenched, it becomes far easier to uphold.

Democratic systems and the rules-based global order have flaws, yet they provided stability, progress and economic growth – the antithesis of dictatorial rule. To suggest that the US, the architect of the postwar order, might rapidly descend into complete dictatorship, with rulers adopting historical extremist mindsets, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is not far-fetched at all. Totalitarianism remained recent history when many of us of individuals within modern democratic Europe were growing up. From Belgium to Bulgaria, most families retain memories of the death, devastation, animosity and destitution resulting from oppressive regimes. If Americans want to save their near future, they should examine historical lessons.